Does Trump’s win pave the way for Poilievre to defeat Trudeau?

Following former president Donald Trump’s decisive win over Vice President Kamala Harris in Tuesday’s U.S. election, there are questions about whether the Republican surge in support could ignite a Conservative push in Canada that would land Pierre Poilievre in office.

One of the biggest reasons Trump won was because he and his team hammered the opponent about the economy and cost of living crisis until voters were convinced.

“There’s one thing that unites Trump and Poilievre above all, and it’s the preponderance of focus on the economy and pocketbook issues,” political writer David Moscrop tells 1130 NewsRadio.

“For all the dangers of Trump, for all of the ramblings, all the attacks, for the most part, the Republican campaign was focused on the economy. It picked up on deep frustrations with the cost of living, with inflation and it exploited that against the incumbent, and you better believe the Conservatives will do the same thing here.”

Moscrop adds the next federal election will come at a time when there is a worldwide push to oust an incumbent from office.

“If you follow the logic of this anti-incumbency trend, you might expect that we’ll see it confirmed federally, which is to say the Conservatives will beat the Liberals. I think on that indication, there is a good reason to think the Conservatives will continue the trend.”

For months now, the Tories have been leading in the polls, and after seeing Trump win handily, Moscrop believes it may spur even more of a Conservative push on this side of the border.

“The election of Trump may actually help them for a reason that you might not expect. Some people say [Justin] Trudeau wants to run against Poilievre because he’s going to be able to paint Poilievre as ‘MAGA north,'” he explained.

“The flipside of that is Angus Reid has data that shows Canadians actually prefer the Conservatives deal with Trump, compared to the Liberals. Poilievre may end up getting a boost from Trump because he’s the one who is more trusted to deal with Trump. On top of that the Liberals are going to have to spend the better part of a year, if that’s how long it is until the next election, dealing with a Trump administration that’s going to be extremely difficult to navigate for Canada.”

The Angus Reid poll released earlier this week showed 38 per cent felt Poilievre would be best to deal with Trump, compared to 23 per cent for Trudeau. It also showed at least 18 per cent of Canadians felt neither Poilievre nor Trudeau would do a good job regardless of who won.

If Trump slaps tariffs on Canada, which he has threatened to do and the country’s economy starts to tank, Moscrop suggests Poilievre will look to take advantage of that.

“Right now, things are looking pretty good for the Conservatives and Poilievre one way or the other.”

Trudeau’s government dealt with Trump in 2016, but it wasn’t easy.

“The Liberals did about as well as you could be expected to do,” explained Moscrop. “It was very, very difficult to manage Trump. He’s a very mercurial, difficult politician. He views everything as a zero-sum game.”

“He’s a bully and a vandal and the Liberals were just trying to make it through the day. They adopted a strategy of not necessarily going through the White House for everything, but working the state level, working state houses, working governors, working Capitol Hill, working industry to try and sway the Trump administration.”

Moscrop warns that may not work this time in the lead-up to the next election, pointing out that Trump and Trudeau aren’t exactly friends.

“Trump called Trudeau a ‘far-left lunatic.’ He speculated he might be Fidel Castro’s son, giving in to this baseless conspiracy that’s floated around the internet. He’s called him ‘two-faced.’ They’re not great buddies.”

Based on that, there’s the chance Trump could also endorse Poilievre ahead of Canadians heading to the polls.

“In some senses, Poilievre may not want it because while lots of Conservatives would identify as Republicans if they were Americans, that’s not going to change their minds. They’re already supporting the Conservatives but if you’re a Liberal or a non-partisan who’s perhaps tilting towards the Conservatives, a Trump endorsement may negatively impact you.

“The Conservatives would probably be very happy not to get an endorsement. That said, if they do get one, I’m sure they’ll be very gracious because if they win, they’re going to have to deal with Trump and they’re not going to want to alienate him.”

The next federal election is slated for Oct. 20, 2025.