How to determine if the Black Friday deal you spotted is really a bargain

Black Friday and Cyber Monday may still be weeks away, but retail experts say now is the time to build a game plan for the big shopping days.

With many stores already heavily advertising which items will star in sales campaigns on or around Nov. 29, deal hunters and professors specializing in marketing say shoppers already have most of what they need to spot a true bargain.

“It’s definitely important for people to take a look at the products that they want and know the prices right now, so that way they’re not first seeing the prices on Black Friday,” said Diana Skakavac, the Toronto woman behind the Have Coupons Will Travel social media accounts.

She and others agree research is crucial to not being swept up by the wave of marketing efforts designed to squeeze as many sales from consumers as possible.

Canadians estimate they will spend $972 across the holiday season with 40 per cent planning to shop on Black Friday and 36 per cent during “Cyber Week,” a Retail Council of Canada and Leger survey of 2,510 consumers found. Those consumers reported they’d spend about 31 per cent of their holiday budget on Black Friday and 30 per cent on Cyber Monday.

Ahead of those days, Skakavac recommends Canadians think about what items they are looking to buy and consider what they are comfortable spending on them.

“I’m really tuning in with myself and saying, ‘OK, I want this but is now the right time for me to purchase this? Can I afford this and does this comfortably fit into my budget?'” she said.

Skakavac, for example, is on the lookout for a Dyson fan, which regularly retails for $550. She knows the brand does not typically offer big discounts but is keen not to drop more than $450 on the purchase.

Figuring out what price constitutes a good deal starts with her checking what the item usually sells for. This can easily be done by monitoring retailer’s websites, stores or even flyer apps like Flipp, but shoppers should look beyond a week or two to get a real sense of an item’s pricing history, Skakavac said.

To find such data, make use of free price history trackers, said Jenna Jacobson, who heads up the newly-formed Retail Leadership Institute at Toronto Metropolitan University.

These apps and services can generate months, if not years, of data, offering insights into corporate pricing strategies.

“You could have the same sale price as there was the week before Black Friday or perhaps the week after Black Friday and it’s still marketed as Black Friday,” Jacobson said.

The price history trackers also help weed out instances where companies manipulate reference prices.

“This is when you see 40 or 50 per cent off the original price but the original price is not actually accurate or perhaps shows the highest retail price of a competitor,” she said.

“Seeing that sticker of 40 per cent off, it’s really appealing because that seems like you’re getting a really great deal, but it may not be accurate, or it could lead you to a perception that something is more discounted than it actually is.”

Even when the discount is being accurately portrayed, it might not be the deepest markdown of the year.

In 2021, consumer advocacy publication Which conducted an analysis of 213 Black Friday promotions offered in the U.K. and found about 98 per cent of deals were cheaper or the same price at other times of the year.

About 85 per cent were cheaper or the same price in the six months leading up to the big shopping period, while 46 per cent were more affordable at other times of the year compared with Black Friday, the analysis found.

“Prices become even lower after Christmas Day, but … the selection of merchandise is also quite limited,” said Yulia Nevskaya, an assistant marketing professor at Queen’s University in Kingston, Ont.

The longer you wait for a deeper discount means the greater the chances a product will have sold out or not be available in your desired colour or model.

Deals also tend to be cyclical, Skakavac said. Using Camel Camel Camel, a price tracker for Amazon listings, she has seen items on sale during Amazon’s Prime Day sales in July be repeated by the tech giant again in October, during its second sales blitz.

Other retailers offer the same sales on Black Friday and Boxing Day.

“So it’s OK to miss a deal and it’s OK to not grab something or to miss out on something,” Skakavac said.

When assessing any deal, she said the most important component is whether it fits your needs.

“It’s not really a good deal if you don’t need it or if you don’t have purpose for it,” she said.

“If you’re buying it just because of the fear of missing out, sometimes it ends up being a bad deal.”

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Nov. 14, 2024.

Tara Deschamps, The Canadian Press