Virginia’s statehouse control hinges on 3 key special elections

RICHMOND, Va. (AP) — Three special elections taking place on Tuesday to fill seats in the Virginia Senate and House of Delegates will determine whether Democrats or Republicans have control of the Statehouse in Republican Glenn Youngkin’s final year as governor.

In northern Loudoun County, Republican Tumay Harding and Democrat Del. Kannan Srinivasan are vying to succeed Suhas Subramanyam in the state Senate after the Democrat was elected to the U.S. House in November. Also on the ballot are Democrat JJ Singh and Republican Ram Venkatachalam, who are racing to replace Srinivasan in the state House of Delegates after he vacated his seat to run in the special Senate election.

In central Goochland County, Republican Luther Cifers is up against Democrat Jack Trammell, a college professor, in a state Senate race. They hope to succeed U.S. Rep. John McGuire, who clinched Virginia’s 5th Congressional District after narrowly defeating former U.S. Rep. Bob Good by less than a percentage point in a bitter primary, which led to a recount in August.

The special elections are being closely watched by outside observers to gauge voters’ moods after November’s presidential race, which left many Democrats reckoning with the party’s losses in federal elections. In Virginia, Senate Democrats have a narrow 20-18 majority since McGuire and Subramanyam’s resignations, making the special elections key to the party’s efforts to preserve a majority in both chambers. In the House of Delegates, Democrats have a 50-49 lead following Srinivasan’s departure.

Srinivasan, the first Indian American immigrant elected to the Virginia House of Delegates, and Singh, a Virginia native and the son of Indian immigrants, are hoping to hold the Democratic seats within a county where data shows that Vice President Kamala Harris received 57% of the vote in her failed bid against President-elect Donald Trump. Both Singh and Srinivasan have largely centered their campaigns around abortion rights in Virginia. It comes at a time when state Democrats are working to enshrine a constitutional right to an abortion in the state.

“What motivates me is the high-stakes election,” Srinivasan said. “The Senate majority is on the line. The constitutional amendment is on the line.”

Harding, the daughter of Turkish Uzbek immigrants and Venkatachalam, an Indian American immigrant, aim to flip the senate and house seats from Democrats. Both candidates, who each unsuccessfully ran for the Loudoun County Board of Supervisors in 2023, have centered their state campaigns along party lines, such as parents’ rights, crime and the economy.

“Our schools are faltering and riddled with politics and division, our neighbors have been made victims of illegal migrant crime, and our families are struggling to afford groceries, gas, and housing,” Harding said in a statement when launching her campaign. “All of this could change if we win this election and give Governor Youngkin a new majority in the Senate.”

In the 10th State Senate district, conservatives are putting their weight behind Cifers to succeed McGuire following a lengthy, multi-ballot primary among Republican voters last month. Cifers, a Prince Edward County resident and president of a Virginia kayaking business, said he never envisioned himself running for office but wanted to bring a different perspective to the legislature, particularly regarding housing and the economy.

“I’m much more concerned about doing the right thing, making sure that we’re constitutionally minded and respecting the will of the voters before I’m super interested in getting into party politics,” Cifers said.

Trammell, who unsuccessfully ran for the 7th U.S. House District in 2014, is hoping to flip the Republican stronghold, which supported Trump by more than 25 points in November, according to the nonpartisan Virginia Public Access Project. Trammell said he partly decided to run for office because he believed his community should have a competitive electoral process.

“There are factors that are transforming District 10,” he said. “To call it a monolithic, traditional-rural Republican district is a little bit of a disservice to the people who are actually living there, working there and raising families there now.”

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Olivia Diaz is a corps member for The Associated Press/Report for America Statehouse News Initiative. Report for America is a nonprofit national service program that places journalists in local newsrooms to report on undercovered issues.

Olivia Diaz, The Associated Press