New poll shows N.S. PC Party holding strong lead, NDP making gains

A newly released poll looking at voter intention ahead of the Nova Scotia provincial election is finding continued strong support for the provincial Progressive Conservatives.

The survey, released on Wednesday by Narrative Research, shows 44 per cent of decided voters say they intend to vote PC. While the Tories still have the most support, the party has fallen from 53 per cent support in August 2024, according to the poll.

Narritive says 28 per cent of decided voters plan to support the NDP, up from 19 per cent in August.

Liberal Party support is at 24 per cent. That figure has not changed since the summer.

“Findings suggest the PCs will achieve a majority win in the upcoming election,” said Margaret Brigley, CEO & Partner of Narrative Research. “The question now is which party will be the official opposition. Our seat projection model suggests that second place is currently too close to call, and that the outcome will be largely dependent on who gets out to vote. Females and younger residents (18-34yrs) are notably more likely to vote NDP than Liberal.”

As for premier preference, the survey finds PC leader Tim Houston is the top choice at 35 per cent support, followed by Claudia Chender of the NDP at 23 per cent. Liberal Zach Churchill is the preferred choice for premier by 15 per cent of respondents.

Narrative also says 54 per cent of respondents say Houston’s decision to call an early election despite his own fixed-election date legislation will not impact their vote.

These results are part of Narrative Research’s Atlantic Quarterly, an independent, quarterly telephone survey, and are drawn from an overall probability sample of 800 adult Nova Scotians, conducted November 4-17, 2024. Overall results are accurate to within ±3.5 percentage points, 95 out of 100 times.