Latest forecast hot – or not? Depends who you ask!
Posted May 10, 2010 05:36:15 AM.
This article is more than 5 years old.
Another three-month forecast from Environment Canada will have some people making vacation plans – and others making backup plans.
News 95.7 meterologist Richard Zurawski says the latest three- month outlook is calling for hot, dry conditions, much like most of the recent forecasts – which have been bang on over the last six months.
While a warm, dry summer will be welcome news to anyone planning a Maritime vacation, Zurawski says there are some drawbacks – most notably for the region’s farmers.
“We did have a number of serious droughts in the last decade,” he said. “Things recovered a bit in the last couple of years, but this could be a substantial problem for agriculture.”
He notes the dry conditions could also mean a third straight year of serious forest fires.
“After Hurricane Juan, there’s a lot of deadfall out there,” he pointed out. “With the dry conditions – and it is very dry out there – there’s always the chance of getting forest fires, and we’re surrounded by forest.”
A warmer-than-usual summer would follow a winter that was also unseasonably mild, with less precipitation than usual. Zurawski says that’s because of the El Nino phenomenon, which affects weather along the East Coast in a fairly predictable manner every few years.
Unfortunately, it also comes with strings attached.
“The El Nino also means we’ll probably wind up with a fairly substantial hurricane season,” he pointed out.
Zurawski says there is an upside to more sun and less rain.
“Bugs rely on water, and so mosquitoes and blackflies are not going to be as ubiquitous as they have been in past season,” he said.
Before anyone starts making definitive plans based on a three-month forecast, Zurawski warns it’s probably best to wait and see, noting the long-term outlooks are accurate only about 50 per cent of the time.
“Last summer we were supposed to have a hot dry summer, and I’m still trying to figure out if we got summer,” he said.
