Tropical cyclone information statement issued for Nova Scotia

UPDATE: Tropical Storm Erin forms, expected to impact Nova Scotia on Thursday

A tropical cyclone information statement has been issued for Nova Scotia, along with P.E.I. and parts of New Brunswick.

Environment Canada says Tropical Depression Six formed Monday off the coast of the Carolinas and it's expected to strengthen into Tropical Storm Erin either late Tuesday or early Wednesday.

The predicted storm track as of 3 p.m. Tuesday shows Erin approaching the province early Friday morning as a post-tropical storm, brushing past Cape Breton.

However, meteorologist with the Canadian Hurricane Centre, Bob Robichaud, said it's still too early know exactly how Halifax will be impacted.

“The trend for the actual track has been shifting a bit towards the southeast over the last couple of forecast cycles,” he told NEWS 95.7's The Rick Howe Show. “If that continues, that should keep any kind of problems with wind offshore.”

Robichaud said the most likely scenario as of 10 a.m. Tuesday would be for the storm's centre to track south of most of Nova Scotia, putting Halifax on the wet side of the system, which could give us between 40 to 70 mm of much needed rain.

“But if that track does shift back a little bit more towards the northwest, it could actually cut through Nova Scotia and you would have areas to the right of that side getting some fairly gusty winds, and with all the leaves on the trees, it could cause a couple of issues here.”

Robichaud expects the rain to start falling in Halifax late Thursday and possibly continuing into Friday.

“If you look at the forward motion of the storm as it's going by late in the week, it's going to be going by fairly quickly,” he said. “Whatever we do get, we'll get in a short period of time, which tends to be typical for these kinds of systems.”

He described the system, currently located around 542 km southeast of Cape Hatteras, as “poorly organized” and said all modelling shows it remaining below hurricane strength.

“There's still a pretty good chance that it will intensify a little bit more, not a whole lot, which would just be enough to classify it as a tropical storm and give it a name,” he explained.

Tropical Depression Six isn't the only system in the Atlantic. Tropical Storm Dorian is moving into the eastern Caribbean Sea.

“Some of the earlier model runs indicated it might actually achieve hurricane status, but there's a layer of fairly dry air in the mid-levels of that storm that's preventing it from intensifying a lot,” Robichaud said.

He expects some weakening as Dorian passes over Caribbean islands.

A tropical storm warning and hurricane watch are in effect for Puerto Rico and parts of the Dominican Republic.

“Once it crosses those islands, there's a whole lot of uncertainty with what's going to be left as it's coming off those islands,” he said. “We're going to have to wait to see what happens after that period of time.”