Latest survey shows majority of votes would go to PCs despite poor ratings on key issues

If an election was held today, the majority of people would be voting for Tim Houston and the Progressive Conservatives, according to a poll by MQO Research.

The poll released Nov. 12 says that of the eligible voters in the province, half who have made up their mind would prefer the PCs to stay in power. About 25 per cent of voters would prefer NDP leader Claudia Chender and 19 per cent would like Zach Churchill, the current opposition and leader of the Liberal Party.

Six per cent of voters would like Green Party leader Anthony Edmonds.

“It would take a truly significant event or set of events for the other party leaders to catch up,” Brenden Sommerhalder, Vice President of MQO Research, predicted. “Nothing is impossible with two weeks left to go—in 2021, Houston’s PCs came from behind to win a majority during the writ period—but at this point any outcome other than another majority government for Houston would be a major upset.”

Across the province, the PCs “enjoy” broad support, the report notes.

Although the conservatives lead with voters of all age groups, races become tighter the younger the generation. According to the report, those aged 28 and older prefer the PCs over the other two parties by a healthy margin.

But only 32 per cent of Generation Z (ages 18 to 27) are planning on voting conservative, with 29 per cent preferring the NDPs and 22 per cent the liberals.

Those ages 60 to 69 are the only group where the liberals are out performing the NDP with 22 per cent leaning to Churchill and 14 per cent toward Chender, both of which are much less than the commanding 62 per cent Houston holds.

Dissatisfaction of the Progressive Conservatives

If Houston and the PCs are successful on election night, voters are still not entirely happy with the government.

The poll asked respondents how satisfied they are with the current government, and 38 per cent said they were dissatisfied while 44 per cent said they were satisfied. About 18 per cent had no opinion.

“While voters say they are willing to send Mr. Houston back to the premier’s chair, they also have a to-do list for him,” the report reads.

Some of the top ranking issues voters are concerned with include:

1. Cost of living and affordability
2. Heath care and accessibility
3. Housing costs and availability
4. Provincial taxes
5. Dealing with unhoused people/encampments
6. Infrastructure and roads
7. Education system quality and funding
8. Environmental protection and renewable energy

The top issue garnered 38 per cent of respondents saying they believe it is most important, followed by 28 per cent noting health care and 14 per cent for housing costs.

The data shows that over 50 per cent of people, despite being likely to vote conservative, are also not pleased with the government’s approach to the issues.

About 67 per cent of people do not favour how the government has dealt with housing costs, 66 per cent aren’t a fan of the policies around the cost of living and 54 per cent note they don’t like how to the government has addresses issues with encampments.

“Despite high levels of dissatisfaction on the handling of voters’ most important issues, the large proportion of voters who support giving Tim Houston another term as premier tend to cite his performance on the job as a reason they support him,” Sommerhalder said.