Food expert ‘seriously doubts’ Christmas turkey shortage

Halifax's food professor is doubtful that most Canadians will see a turkey shortage for the holiday season.

“I think the word 'shortage' is the word that means 'crisis' in 2021,” Dalhousie University food policy and distribution professor Sylvain Charlebois says. “People love to throw around the word 'shortage' just to create panic. Honestly, I don't think it's going to be an issue.

“That being said, two things are likely to happen this year: your turkey is probably going to be smaller and more expensive.”

For instance, he tells CityNews Halifax that chicken prices have increased by 13 or 14 per cent. That increase is expected to be the same for turkey.

But still, that doesn't mean people need to rush to the grocery store unless they have a specific need.

“If you're looking for a big bird? Probably,” Charlebois says. “You may want to go to the grocery store sooner because we do expect the number of larger birds to be restricted.”

He says if he hosts a dinner, he tends to purchase two smaller birds since smaller ones lean on the tender side and larger birds are usually bonier.

“They get dry if you actually leave it in the oven too long,” he says. “So, smaller birds are actually not bad at all. I would encourage people to consider smaller birds, one or two birds.

“If you want to save some money, go for one bird and maybe ham because pork is actually cheaper.”

He attributes that price difference to supply and demand as well as people diversifying “their portfolio of proteins” with different products.

“They're buying seafood, they're buying vegetable proteins,” he says. “I was actually just visiting an aquaculture farm yesterday in the valley, and demand for their products is actually higher now compared to last year. … A lot of people are buying different things.”

Still, Turkey Farmers of Canada reports that Canadians purchased 2.9 million whole turkeys in 2020. That number was 2.5 million for Thanksgiving.

Charlebois says the same number of turkeys will likely be sold this year's holiday season.

Even though he doubts there will be a serious shortage, he says it is possible that inventory numbers could be slightly lower.

He points to last year's incident where Eden Valley Poultry in the Annapolis Valley shut down for two weeks due to a COVID-19 outbreak causing rumours that there could be a chicken and turkey shortage.

“We didn't run out,” he says. “There were plenty of birds for everyone.”

In other parts of Canada, possible turkey shortages have been reported including a 30-year low for turkey stocks.

Last week, the owner of Country Lane Farms near Strathmore, Alta. saw a sudden uptick in new customer inquiries in November for poultry.

British Columbia is expected to see the most difficulty in accessing turkeys; flooding in the province has shut down highways and affected the transport of goods.

Those floods could possibly affect other parts of the country; British Columbia's Lower Mainland is responsible for 13 per cent of Canada's overall turkey production.