2013 hurricane forecasting not even close
Posted Oct 24, 2013 10:40:33 AM.
This article is more than 5 years old.
HALIFAX – Despite dire predictions to the contrary, the 2013 hurricane season is turning out to be a dud.
With a little over a month left in the North Atlantic season, it’s now clear that the long-range U-S forecasts issued in the spring weren’t even close.
In May, the U-S Climate Prediction Centre forecast there would be between seven and 11 hurricanes, and that three to six could become major hurricanes.
So far this year, there have been only two weak hurricanes – Ingrid and Humberto in early September.
Chris Fogarty, manager of the Canadian Hurricane Centre in Halifax, says the predictions were so far off base that U-S meteorologists should consider issuing seasonal forecasts without hard numbers.
Dennis Feltgen, a meteorologist with the National Hurricane Center in Miami, says the predictions should never be used as guides to decide whether or not to prepare for hurricane season.
