Halifax relatively unaffected by Trump tariffs, data shows

As the trade war between the U.S. and Canada drags on, a new report by the University of Toronto is shedding light on how the evolving situation is impacting employees and businesses across the country.

The post-secondary institution released a tool that showcases how vulnerable cities are to the changing threats from the Donald Trump administration in terms of specific tariffed goods.

Despite the researchers, Karen Chapple and Tara Vinodrai, working on the site since May, they note the data is not perfect.

“Assessing the effects of tariffs is not straightforward as the economic landscape is dynamic. Businesses may respond by seeking new markets or alternative suppliers—though this is easier for some sectors than others,” the release reads. “Consumers may shift toward buying Canadian-made goods.”

This comes as Prime Minister Mark Carney is set to return to Ottawa on Wednesday with no deals to remove U.S. tariffs from Canadian goods, but he’s leaving his key minister on Canada-U.S. trade behind to keep pressing the case.

President Trump lavished praise on Carney during a meeting in the Oval Office on Tuesday and said the prime minister would walk away “very happy.” The president showed no signs of relenting on tariffs, however, and no deal was announced.

What experts can conclude is that Halifax Regional Municipality is faring much better than smaller communities across the country.

Consistently, the tool shows that Halifax is impacted, but it is a smaller portion of either businesses or employees. The items heavily tariffed by the U.S. government are a portion of the Nova Scotia economy, but not a focus.

“Smaller and mid-sized cities — especially those that are resource-dependent or act as manufacturing hubs — face greater relative exposure,” the post reads.

Percentage of businesses impacted:

• All: 6.2 per cent
• Auto: 0.6 per cent
• Aluminum: 1.3 per cent
• Steel: 1.0 per cent
• Copper: 0.7 per cent
• Lumber 0.9 per cent
• Energy and natural resources: 0.8 per cent
• Non-CUSMA-compliant: 6.0 per cent

For HRM, the percentage of businesses is higher than the employees impacted. The data does show that businesses in larger cities, Toronto or Montreal, have higher numbers impacted, but the relative effect is lower because of the diversity in the economy.

In another report detailing impacts on the province, it showed the same results with fewer effects of tariffs because the province has a mix of industries.

Percentage of employees (by primary residence) impacted:

• All: 4.6 per cent
• Auto: 0.5 per cent of employees
• Aluminum: 1.2 per cent
• Steel: 0.7 per cent
• Copper: 0.1 per cent
• Lumber 0.9 per cent
• Cnergy and natural resources: 0.7 per cent
• Non-CUSMA-compliant: 4.3 per cent